PG-HACKER Score  

MACCE cumulative incidence for Diabetic Patients post-ACS

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  Age
  Gender
  LVEF
  Peripheral artery disease
  Previous CHF
  Killip class
  Optimal medical treatment

Points=


MACCE incidence

1-year
2-year
3-year
4-year
5-year

The PG-HACKER registry


A cohort of 1400 diabetic patients who were admitted due to acute coronary syndrome (ACS), between Nov 2003 and Jan 2017.

They were followed for MACCE events and all-cause mortality.

Definitions:

  • MACCE event: either cardiovascular mortality, new myocardial ischemia, sudden cardiac death, cerebrovascular accident or heart failure episode.
  • ACS: acute coronary syndrome was defined by the presence of typical clinical symptoms of chest pain and electrocardiographic changes indicative of myocardial ischemia/lesion and/or elevation of serum markers of myocardial damage [Ibanez, 2018].
  • LVEF: left ventricle ejection fraction was coded in: no dysfunction (LVEF > 51%) mild (LVEF 41-51%), moderate (LVEF 30-40%) or severe dysfunction (<30%) [Lang, 2015].
  • OMT: optimal medical treatment was defined as the joint implementation of these four treatments: antiplatelets, statins, betablockers and angiotensin-converter enzyme inhibitors or mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs).

Outcomes:

  • 783 patients suffered a MACCE event, from which 417 patients died.
  • 143 patients died from non-cardiovascular causes.

Statistical rationale:

  • The PG-HACKER score is based in a Fine & Gray model for competing risks.
  • A competing risk (CR) is an event whose occurrence either precludes the occurrence of another event under examination or fundamentally alters the probability of occurrence of this other event.
  • Kaplan-Meier methods are not suitable for modeling CRs, as they tend to overestimate incidence.
  • Fine & Gray models have use in predicting an individual’s incidence of an event (MACCE), taking into account the possibility that a competing event (all-cause mortality) occurs.
  • The point-based score transforms the time-to-event model into a simple set of operations, to facilitate its use in the clinical setting.

Age   

  • Option 1: add 1 point every 5 years, starting from age 20 to 95.
  • Option 2: points=(age - 20)/5 (rounded to floor).
  • Range: 0-15 points.

Gender   

  • Female: -1 point.
  • Male: 0 points.

Previous CHF   

  • 1 point if diagnosed.

LVEF   

  • ≥ 51%: 0 points.
  • 41-51%: 1 point.
  • ≤ 40% : 2 points.

Peripheral artery disease   

  • 1 point if diagnosed.

Killip class   

  • Killip I: 0 points.
  • Killip II: 1 point.
  • Killip III: 2 points.
  • Killip IV: 3 points.

Optimal Medical Treatment   

  • -1 point if treated.
Abbreviations: LVEF=left ventricle ejection fraction; CHF=congestive heart failure.

Points CIF 01 year CIF 02 year CIF 03 year CIF 04 year CIF 05 year CIF 10 year
-2 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.16
-1 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.18
0 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.21
1 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.24
2 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.27
3 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.31
4 0.07 0.10 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.35
5 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.39
6 0.09 0.14 0.18 0.22 0.25 0.44
7 0.11 0.16 0.21 0.25 0.28 0.49
8 0.12 0.18 0.23 0.28 0.32 0.55
9 0.14 0.21 0.27 0.32 0.36 0.60
10 0.16 0.24 0.30 0.36 0.41 0.66
11 0.19 0.28 0.34 0.41 0.46 0.71
12 0.21 0.31 0.39 0.46 0.51 0.77
13 0.24 0.35 0.44 0.51 0.56 0.82
14 0.28 0.40 0.49 0.56 0.62 0.86
15 0.32 0.45 0.54 0.62 0.68 0.90
16 0.36 0.50 0.60 0.67 0.73 0.93
17 0.40 0.55 0.65 0.73 0.78 0.96
18 0.45 0.61 0.71 0.78 0.83 0.97
19 0.51 0.67 0.76 0.83 0.88 0.99
20 0.56 0.72 0.81 0.87 0.91 0.99
21 0.62 0.77 0.86 0.91 0.94 1.00
22 0.67 0.82 0.90 0.94 0.96 1.00
CIF: cumulative incidence function for MACCE, or expected MACCE incidence at a given timepoint.

Author

Aurora Baluja-González 1,3,   Moisés Rodríguez-Mañero 2,3, Alberto Cordero 2,4

Anesthesiology & Critical Care Department1, Cardiology Department - CIBERCV2.

Hospital Clínico Universitario, Santiago de Compostela3. Hospital Universitario de San Juan, Alicante 4, España


A. Baluja, 2018. License - Code: GNU-GPL v3. Bootstrap CSS, Bootswatch: MIT.